Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Tomorrow: Thursday April 2, 2020
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Colorado Springs, CO (KCOS)
The two models disagree on Thursday's low temperature for Colorado Springs, Colorado. Let's forecast Tmin and see what happens.
Question: At the very end of the day (Thursday night), look at these two forecasts of surface (10 m above ground) wind speed: GFS and NAM. What do you see that could explain why the GFS predictions of the temperature at that time are colder than the NAM predictions?
Submit a Forecast
Please login or register if you would like to submit a forecast.
| Forecaster | Tmin, deg F | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 28 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 34 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 28 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 28 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 36 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 23 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 24 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 37 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 25 |
Today: Wednesday April 1, 2020
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Cut Bank, MT (KCTB)
I'm sure that Cut Bank, Montana is a cold place (it's in Glacier County, after all), but a predicted low temperature on Wednesday in the single digits is about 20 F below average, kind of an April Fools Day prank. Let's forecast the Tmin for Cut Bank and see how low it goes.
Question: We've looked at cases where calm winds and clear skies can lead to strong nighttime radiative cooling and low minimum temperatures, but the Wednesday morning NWS forecast for Cut Bank seems opposite to that: "Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 9. Wind chill values as low as -5. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible." So how do you think it's possible that the temperature could get so cold in this case?
| Forecaster | Tmin, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 7 | Data through 2200 UTC | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 7 (0) | 2.8 | |
| kendra15 | 7 (0) | 2.8 | |
| T-Dawg15 | 7 (0) | 2.8 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 6 (-1) | 2.7 | |
| Jasper15 | 6 (-1) | 2.7 | |
| Abbygale15 | 9 (2) | 2.5 | |
| EmilyS15 | 5 (-2) | 2.5 | |
| Gus15 | 5 (-2) | 2.5 | |
| Joscelyn15 | 9 (2) | 2.5 | |
| Miles15 | 5 (-2) | 2.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 5 (-2) | 2.5 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 5 (-2) | 2.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 5 (-2) | 2.5 | |
| Alex15 | 4.5 (-2.5) | My best guess | 2.4 |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 4 (-3) | 2.4 | |
| Lizzie15 | 4 (-3) | 2.4 | |
| Elizabeth15 | 10 (3) | 2.4 | |
| Shyann15 | 10 (3) | 2.4 | |
| Josh15 | 4 (-3) | I think a reason for it being this cold is that area of the country can experience colder winters because of the geography since you have the huge mountains and valleys which can in a way trap the cold causing it to get stuck there for while. | 2.4 |
Yesterday: Tuesday March 31, 2020
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr precipitation amount (inches) for Wilmington, NC (KILM)
A fast-moving low pressure system may intensify as it passes through North Carolina on Tuesday, with the possibility of over one inch of rain in some locations. The NWS model statistical forecasts range from 0.9 to 1.68 inches for Wilmington, NC. So let's forecast the 24 hr precipitation amount (2 am EDT Tuesday through 2 am EDT Wednesday) for Wilmington.
What Happened?
The heaviest precip occurred a little later, as the storm system was offshore. But Wilmington still got 0.54 inches pretty quickly.
| Forecaster | Precip24, inches (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 0.54 | Precip24 FINAL. | |
| 1. Eavenly15 | 0.6 (0.06) | 3.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 0.72 (0.18) | 3.2 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 0.72 (0.18) | 3.2 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 0.36 (-0.18) | 3.2 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 0.9 (0.36) | 2.7 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 0.9 (0.36) | 2.7 | |
| 2. Emily15 | 0.17 (-0.37) | 2.7 | |
| CLIMATE | 0.17 (-0.37) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 2.7 |
| 3. Mathison15 | 1 (0.46) | 2.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 1.08 (0.54) | 2.3 | |
| 4. Gus15 | 1.19 (0.65) | 2.0 | |
| 5. EmilyV15 | 1.4 (0.86) | 1.5 | |
| 6. Josh15 | 1.5 (0.96) | 1.2 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 1.5 (0.96) | 1.2 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 1.56 (1.02) | 1.1 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 1.68 (1.14) | 0.8 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 1.68 (1.14) | 0.8 | |
| 7. Dorothy15 | 1.72 (1.18) | 0.7 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 1.86 (1.32) | 0.3 |
Earlier Contest Days
- Saturday March 28, 2020: Des Moines, IA (KDSM)-Saturday provides another example of a l . .
- Friday March 27, 2020: Wichita-Mid-Continent, KS (KICT)-For Friday's high temperature in Wichita . .
- Wednesday March 25, 2020: Hatteras, NC (KHSE)-As a low pressure system moves through t . .
- Tuesday March 24, 2020: Saranac Lake, NY (KSLK)-On Sunday morning the low temperature in . .
- Tuesday March 17, 2020: Beverly, MA (KBVY)-Looking a cold front to pass through . .
- Friday March 13, 2020: Roswell, NM (KROW)-We show automated forecasts from the two . .
- Thursday March 12, 2020: Alturus, CA (KAAT)-We can call the difference between the d . .
- Tuesday January 28, 2020: Rome, NY (KRME)-tmax . .
- Friday January 24, 2020: Rome, NY (KRME)-tmax . .
. . .
List of all contest days