The two models disagree on Thursday's low temperature for Colorado Springs, Colorado. Let's forecast Tmin and see what happens.
Question: At the very end of the day (Thursday night), look at these two forecasts of surface (10 m above ground) wind speed: GFS and NAM. What do you see that could explain why the GFS predictions of the temperature at that time are colder than the NAM predictions?
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|Forecaster||Tmin, deg F||Comment|
I'm sure that Cut Bank, Montana is a cold place (it's in Glacier County, after all), but a predicted low temperature on Wednesday in the single digits is about 20 F below average, kind of an April Fools Day prank. Let's forecast the Tmin for Cut Bank and see how low it goes.
Question: We've looked at cases where calm winds and clear skies can lead to strong nighttime radiative cooling and low minimum temperatures, but the Wednesday morning NWS forecast for Cut Bank seems opposite to that: "Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 9. Wind chill values as low as -5. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible." So how do you think it's possible that the temperature could get so cold in this case?
|Forecaster||Tmin, deg F (error)||Comment||Day Score|
|OBSERVED||7||Data through 2200 UTC|
|Alex15||4.5 (-2.5)||My best guess||2.4|
|Josh15||4 (-3)||I think a reason for it being this cold is that area of the country can experience colder winters because of the geography since you have the huge mountains and valleys which can in a way trap the cold causing it to get stuck there for while.||2.4|
A fast-moving low pressure system may intensify as it passes through North Carolina on Tuesday, with the possibility of over one inch of rain in some locations. The NWS model statistical forecasts range from 0.9 to 1.68 inches for Wilmington, NC. So let's forecast the 24 hr precipitation amount (2 am EDT Tuesday through 2 am EDT Wednesday) for Wilmington.
The heaviest precip occurred a little later, as the storm system was offshore. But Wilmington still got 0.54 inches pretty quickly.
|Forecaster||Precip24, inches (error)||Comment||Day Score|
|1. Eavenly15||0.6 (0.06)||3.5|
|2. Emily15||0.17 (-0.37)||2.7|
|CLIMATE||0.17 (-0.37)||NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010||2.7|
|3. Mathison15||1 (0.46)||2.5|
|4. Gus15||1.19 (0.65)||2.0|
|5. EmilyV15||1.4 (0.86)||1.5|
|6. Josh15||1.5 (0.96)||1.2|
|7. Dorothy15||1.72 (1.18)||0.7|
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