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Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

Tomorrow: Tuesday February 20, 2018

Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Charleston, WV (KCRW) This week's weather is fairly dramatic: very cold air in the northern Rockies, very warm air in the East, and very heavy rainfall along a line from Texas to the Great Lakes. For Tuesday, let's predict the high temperature for Charleston, West Virginia. The GFS MOS has been predicting difficult-to-believe highs in the upper 80's, almost 40 F above average, and comparable to the national highs in Florida. Is that possible? The NAM MOS and NWS forecasts are a little lower, around 80 F. What combination of things could produce a high temperature in West Virginia near 90 F in February?

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Forecasts for Charleston, WV (KCRW)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F Comment
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 86
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 79
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 86
CLIMATE 47.8 NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 85
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 78
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 87
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 86
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 74
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 86

Today: Monday February 19, 2018

There is not a Forecast of the Day contest for today.

Most Recent Completed Forecast of the Day: Saturday February 17, 2018

Predict the 24 hr precipitation amount (in) for Roseburg, OR (KRBG) To conclude Valentines Week, let's predict the 24-hr precipitation amount for Roseburg, Oregon. Almost all of the MOS forecasts show similar light amounts. Wikipedia says that Roseburg has called itself the Timber Capital of the Nation.
Forecasts for Roseburg, OR (KRBG)
Forecaster Precip24, in (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 0.03 Data through 0600 UTC
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 0.12 (0.09) 3.5
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 0.18 (0.15) 2.3
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 0.18 (0.15) 2.3
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 0.18 (0.15) 2.3
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 0.18 (0.15) 2.3
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 0.18 (0.15) 2.3
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 0.18 (0.15) 2.3
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 0.18 (0.15) 2.3
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 0.18 (0.15) 2.3
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 0.18 (0.15) 2.3
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 0.3 (0.27) 0
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 0.3 (0.27) 0