Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Tomorrow: Friday October 23, 2020
There is not a Forecast of the Day contest for tomorrow.
Today: Thursday October 22, 2020
There is not a Forecast of the Day contest for today.
Most Recent Completed Forecast of the Day: Friday April 10, 2020
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Yellowstone, WY (KP60)
I'm a little puzzled by Friday's minimum temperature forecasts for Yellowstone, Wyoming. The GFS runs predict a low of about 25 F, but the NAM predicts about 15 F. The problem is that I don't really see why the NAM is going that low. But I could easily be wrong, so let's forecast Tmin for Yellowstone and see how it comes out.
What Happened?
Well the observed low was 20 F, so the NAM forecasts were a little too cold and the GFS forecasts were a little too warm.
| Forecaster | Tmin, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 20 | Tmin FINAL. | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 21 (1) | 3.9 | |
| 1. Lizzie15 | 18 (-2) | 3.3 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 18 (-2) | 3.3 | |
| 2. Blake15 | 17 (-3) | 2.7 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 17 (-3) | 2.7 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 24 (4) | 2.2 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 25 (5) | 1.6 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 25 (5) | 1.6 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 15 (-5) | 1.6 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 25 (5) | 1.6 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 26 (6) | 1.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 26 (6) | 1.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 26 (6) | 1.0 | |
| PERSISTENCE | 13 (-7) | 0.4 |
Earlier Contest Days
- Thursday April 9, 2020: Bangor, ME (KBGR)-We haven't tried a snow forecast yet, an . .
- Wednesday April 8, 2020: Lufkin, TX (KLFK)-I keep an eye on the <a href="https://ww . .
- Tuesday April 7, 2020: Las Vegas-McCarran, NV (KLAS)-An upper level low pressure center is ex . .
- Saturday April 4, 2020: Deadhorse, AK (PASC)-To end the week, let's try a forecast in . .
- Friday April 3, 2020: Amarillo, TX (KAMA)-As the push of cold air continues to mov . .
- Thursday April 2, 2020: Colorado Springs, CO (KCOS)-The two models disagree on Thursday's lo . .
- Wednesday April 1, 2020: Cut Bank, MT (KCTB)-I'm sure that Cut Bank, Montana is a col . .
- Tuesday March 31, 2020: Wilmington, NC (KILM)-A fast-moving low pressure system may in . .
- Saturday March 28, 2020: Des Moines, IA (KDSM)-Saturday provides another example of a l . .
. . .
List of all contest days