There is not a Forecast of the Day contest for tomorrow.
The forecast contest for Tues will be to forecast the precip for Grand Junction CO (KGJT). The main challenge for the forecaster will be the timing and strength of a trough of low pressure that will move through the area. Go to Link to see NWS’s expected weather map for 8 AM EDT on Tuesday. The models are indicating generally light precipitation, e[especially in the afternoon. But the nature of this precip will be showery which models have a hard time to resolve. This gives the forecast a challenge when forecasting for the exact amount of precipitation for one location.
|Forecaster||Precip24, inches (error)||Comment||Day Score|
|OBSERVED||0||Data through 1000 UTC|
|glennvk||0.1 (0.1)||Using Sat imagery, it looks like the trough will be fairly strong and pass through the region mid afternoon allowing for max heating and I believe a good chance for showers at KGJT. But it is a high uncertainty forecasts.||0.7|
|CLIMATE||0.11 (0.11)||NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010||0.5|
The forecast contest for Friday will be to forecast the max temperature for Syracuse NY. The main challenge for the forecaster will be very similar to Friday challenge in Columbus Ohio, which is the timing of the passage of first a warm front and then the cold front that is expected to occur On Saturday. Go to Link to see NWS’s expected frontal position for 8 AM EDT on Saturday. Again, if the warm front passes early the temperature will be very warm well above average. On the other hand if the warm front moves slowly there will be lots of clouds and a cooler air mass in the Syracuse area tomorrow. If the warm front moves slowly the max temperature would be much lower than for an early warm frontal passage. If the warm front moves slow enough it is even possible that it never makes it through the Syracuse area before the cold front sweeps through the area.
As the models predicted, the warm front stayed south of the forecast region allowing for mostly cloudy and showery conditions for much of the day keeping the high temperature in the mid 70s as predicted by the model forecasts.
|Forecaster||Tmax, deg F (error)||Comment||Day Score|
|1. glennvk||74 (-2)||I think the warm front stays to the south of SYR with lots of clouds and showers in the area keeping max temp in the low 70s as models are predicting||3.1|
|CLIMATE||73 (-3)||NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010||2.1|
. . .List of all contest days