Forecast Central

Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

Tomorrow: Saturday September 19, 2020

There is not a Forecast of the Day contest for tomorrow.


Today: Friday September 18, 2020

There is not a Forecast of the Day contest for today.


Most Recent Completed Forecast of the Day: Friday April 10, 2020

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Yellowstone, WY (KP60)

I'm a little puzzled by Friday's minimum temperature forecasts for Yellowstone, Wyoming. The GFS runs predict a low of about 25 F, but the NAM predicts about 15 F. The problem is that I don't really see why the NAM is going that low. But I could easily be wrong, so let's forecast Tmin for Yellowstone and see how it comes out.

What Happened?

Well the observed low was 20 F, so the NAM forecasts were a little too cold and the GFS forecasts were a little too warm.

Forecasts for Yellowstone, WY (KP60)
Forecaster Tmin, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 20 Tmin FINAL.
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 21 (1) 3.9
1. Lizzie15 18 (-2) 3.3
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 18 (-2) 3.3
2. Blake15 17 (-3) 2.7
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 17 (-3) 2.7
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 24 (4) 2.2
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 25 (5) 1.6
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 25 (5) 1.6
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 15 (-5) 1.6
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 25 (5) 1.6
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 26 (6) 1.0
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 26 (6) 1.0
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 26 (6) 1.0
PERSISTENCE 13 (-7) 0.4

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