Forecast Central

Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

Tomorrow: Wednesday September 18, 2019

There is not a Forecast of the Day contest for tomorrow.

Today: Tuesday September 17, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr precipitation amount (inches) for Grand Junction , CO (KGJT)

The forecast contest for Tues will be to forecast the precip for Grand Junction CO (KGJT). The main challenge for the forecaster will be the timing and strength of a trough of low pressure that will move through the area. Go to Link to see NWS’s expected weather map for 8 AM EDT on Tuesday. The models are indicating generally light precipitation, e[especially in the afternoon. But the nature of this precip will be showery which models have a hard time to resolve. This gives the forecast a challenge when forecasting for the exact amount of precipitation for one location.

Forecasts for Grand Junction , CO (KGJT)
Forecaster Precip24, inches (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 0 Data through 1000 UTC
CLIMATE 0.11 (0.11) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0.5
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 0.12 (0.12) 0.3
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 0.12 (0.12) 0.3
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 0 (0) 2.6
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 0 (0) 2.6
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 0 (0) 2.6
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 0 (0) 2.6
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 0 (0) 2.6
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 0 (0) 2.6
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 0 (0) 2.6
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 0 (0) 2.6
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 0 (0) 2.6
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 0 (0) 2.6
glennvk 0.1 (0.1) Using Sat imagery, it looks like the trough will be fairly strong and pass through the region mid afternoon allowing for max heating and I believe a good chance for showers at KGJT. But it is a high uncertainty forecasts. 0.7

Most Recent Completed Forecast of the Day: Saturday September 14, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Syracuse, NY (KSYR)

The forecast contest for Friday will be to forecast the max temperature for Syracuse NY. The main challenge for the forecaster will be very similar to Friday challenge in Columbus Ohio, which is the timing of the passage of first a warm front and then the cold front that is expected to occur On Saturday. Go to Link to see NWS’s expected frontal position for 8 AM EDT on Saturday. Again, if the warm front passes early the temperature will be very warm well above average. On the other hand if the warm front moves slowly there will be lots of clouds and a cooler air mass in the Syracuse area tomorrow. If the warm front moves slowly the max temperature would be much lower than for an early warm frontal passage. If the warm front moves slow enough it is even possible that it never makes it through the Syracuse area before the cold front sweeps through the area.

What Happened?

As the models predicted, the warm front stayed south of the forecast region allowing for mostly cloudy and showery conditions for much of the day keeping the high temperature in the mid 70s as predicted by the model forecasts.

Forecasts for Syracuse, NY (KSYR)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
CLIMATE 73 (-3) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 2.1
PERSISTENCE 74 (-2) 3.1
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 72 (-4) 1.0
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 72 (-4) 1.0
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 72 (-4) 1.0
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 72 (-4) 1.0
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 72 (-4) 1.0
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 72 (-4) 1.0
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 73 (-3) 2.1
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 73 (-3) 2.1
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 73 (-3) 2.1
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 74 (-2) 3.1
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 75 (-1) 4.2
1. glennvk 74 (-2) I think the warm front stays to the south of SYR with lots of clouds and showers in the area keeping max temp in the low 70s as models are predicting 3.1

Earlier Contest Days

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List of all contest days