Forecast Central

Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

Tomorrow: Saturday April 11, 2020

There is not a Forecast of the Day contest for tomorrow.


Today: Friday April 10, 2020

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Yellowstone, WY (KP60)

I'm a little puzzled by Friday's minimum temperature forecasts for Yellowstone, Wyoming. The GFS runs predict a low of about 25 F, but the NAM predicts about 15 F. The problem is that I don't really see why the NAM is going that low. But I could easily be wrong, so let's forecast Tmin for Yellowstone and see how it comes out.

Forecasts for Yellowstone, WY (KP60)
Forecaster Tmin, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
MOS
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 15 ( )
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 18 ( )
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 26 ( )
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 25 ( )
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 17 ( )
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 24 ( )
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 25 ( )
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 25 (0) 0
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 26 (0) 0
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 21 (0) 0
StokesEarlyCollegeHigh-Mr.Price-SpringEarth/Env.Sciences
Blake15 17 (0) 0
Lizzie15 18 (0) 0

Most Recent Completed Forecast of the Day: Wednesday April 8, 2020

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Lufkin, TX (KLFK)

I keep an eye on the hottest and coldest daily observations in the U.S., and the national high is usually somewhere in the desert Southwest (like Yuma, AZ), someplace in South Texas, or someplace in Florida. But the current GFS MOS forecasts are showing that Lufkin, Texas (in Deep East Texas, not South Texas) could have the highest temperature on Wednesday. It's also a little strange that the NWS page for Lufkin shows flood warnings all week, which doesn't usually go with high temperatures. Anyway, let's predict Wednesday's Tmax for Lufkin and see what happens.

Question: What is it about the desert Southwest that results in such extreme high temperatures? Please don't say "because it's the desert" -- what is it about the desert that produces those extremes?

What Happened?

Well Lufkin was foggy/misty/overcast until 1 pm. It finally started clearing and the temperature increased, but the slow start meant that they reached only 87 F, lower than any of the model statistical forecasts.

Of course the desert is often cloud-free, leading to the maximum possible amount of solar radiation. But probably the most important thing is that the lack of rainfall means that the soil stays very dry for long periods in the desert. Given an equal amount of solar radiation between a site with a wet climate and lots of vegetation (e.g. Florida) and a dry desert site, the wet site will warm up less, because some of the energy is used to evaporate water from the soil and drive transpiration from the vegetation, rather than increasing the air temperature.

Forecasts for Lufkin, TX (KLFK)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 87 Tmax FINAL (minor problem).
Reference
PERSISTENCE 84 ( )
CLIMATE 76.6 (-10.4) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0
MOS
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 94 (7) 1.0
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 94 (7) 1.0
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 92 (5) 1.7
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 92 (5) 1.7
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 91 (4) 2.0
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 91 (4) 2.0
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 91 (4) 2.0
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 90 (3) 2.3
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 90 (3) 2.3
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 89 (2) 2.7
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 89 (2) 2.7
StokesEarlyCollegeHigh-Mr.Price-SpringEarth/Env.Sciences
1. Grace15 87 (0) 3.4
1. Joscelyn15 87 (0) 3.4
3. Austin15 88 (1) There isnt enough water in the sand to control the temperature 3.0
3. Anna15 88 (1) 3.0
3. T-Dawg15 86 (-1) 3.0
3. Jasper15 86 (-1) 3.0
3. Leah15 88 (1) 3.0
8. Mathison15 89 (2) 2.7
8. Lizzie15 85 (-2) 2.7
8. Gus15 89 (2) 2.7
8. Dorothy15 89 (2) 2.7
8. Eavenly15 85 (-2) 2.7
13. Gianni15 90 (3) 2.3
13. Elizabeth15 84 (-3) 2.3
15. Hannah15 83 (-4) 2.0
15. Josh15 91 (4) The small amount of water which is also why it gets cold at night which also means the effect of the suns heat will be greater cause there is no water to absorb it. 2.0
17. Alex15 92.1 (5.1) 1.6
18. Abbygale15 93 (6) 1.3
19. Autumn15 94 (7) 1.0
20. EmilyS15 95 (8) 0.7
20. EmilyV15 95 (8) 0.7
22. Shyann15 78 (-9) 0.3
23. Shelby15 75 (-12) 0

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