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Friday April 3, 2020

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Amarillo, TX (KAMA)

As the push of cold air continues to move southward through Texas, you can see the dramatic temperature drops in some locations. For example, it looks like the high temperature Thursday in Amarillo, Texas (once "The Helium Capital of the World") will be near or above 80 F, but then the low temperature for Friday may be in the 30's. So let's predict Friday's Tmin for Amarillo.

Question: This part of the spring is notorious for the frequency of tornadoes and other severe weather in the Southern Plains. Here's a map of the area with the highest probability. Severe weather can really occur in any month, but why does it happen most often in the spring?

What Happened?

The cold front passed through the evening before, and the temperature plunged all the way from 80 F at 6 pm to 25 F in the morning. Here's a nice discussion of the setup for severe weather in April, including a statement that the three worst tornado outbreaks in U.S. history all occurred in April.

Forecasts for Amarillo, TX (KAMA)
Forecaster Tmin, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 25 Tmin FINAL.
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 28 (3) 2.8
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 29 (4) 2.7
PERSISTENCE 30 (5) 2.6
1. Django15 30 (5) 2.6
1. ashleigh15 30 (5) 2.6
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 31 (6) 2.5
3. Gus15 31 (6) 2.5
3. kendra15 31 (6) 2.5
5. Grace15 32 (7) 2.4
5. Sara15 32 (7) 2.4
5. Joscelyn15 32 (7) 2.4
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 32 (7) 2.4
5. Austin15 32 (7) 2.4
5. Leah15 32 (7) 2.4
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 33 (8) 2.3
10. Keith15 33 (8) 2.3
10. Briley15 33 (8) 2.3
10. Anna15 33 (8) 2.3
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 33 (8) 2.3
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 33 (8) 2.3
13. EmilyV15 34 (9) 2.2
13. Elizabeth15 34 (9) 2.2
13. Josh15 34 (9) I think since that is the period that is the switch off between winter and summer so it can go back and forth like a tug a war. 2.2
13. Jasper15 34 (9) 2.2
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 34 (9) 2.2
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 34 (9) 2.2
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 34 (9) 2.2
17. Shelby15 35 (10) 2.2
17. Hannah15 35 (10) 2.2
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 36 (11) 2.1
19. Abbygale15 37 (12) 2.0
CLIMATE 37.7 (12.7) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 1.9
20. Dorothy15 39 (14) 1.8
20. Lizzie15 39 (14) 1.8
22. Mikayleigh15 40 (15) 1.7
22. Shyann15 40 (15) 1.7
24. Eavenly15 47 (22) 1.0
25. Mathison15 55 (30) 0.3
26. EmilyS15 75 (50) 0
26. T-Dawg15 81 (56) 0