A fast-moving low pressure system may intensify as it passes through North Carolina on Tuesday, with the possibility of over one inch of rain in some locations. The NWS model statistical forecasts range from 0.9 to 1.68 inches for Wilmington, NC. So let's forecast the 24 hr precipitation amount (2 am EDT Tuesday through 2 am EDT Wednesday) for Wilmington.
The heaviest precip occurred a little later, as the storm system was offshore. But Wilmington still got 0.54 inches pretty quickly.
Forecaster | Precip24, inches (error) | Comment | Day Score |
---|---|---|---|
OBSERVED | 0.54 | Precip24 FINAL. | |
1. Eavenly15 | 0.6 (0.06) | 3.5 | |
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 0.72 (0.18) | 3.2 | |
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 0.72 (0.18) | 3.2 | |
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 0.36 (-0.18) | 3.2 | |
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 0.9 (0.36) | 2.7 | |
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 0.9 (0.36) | 2.7 | |
2. Emily15 | 0.17 (-0.37) | 2.7 | |
CLIMATE | 0.17 (-0.37) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 2.7 |
3. Mathison15 | 1 (0.46) | 2.5 | |
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 1.08 (0.54) | 2.3 | |
4. Gus15 | 1.19 (0.65) | 2.0 | |
5. EmilyV15 | 1.4 (0.86) | 1.5 | |
6. Josh15 | 1.5 (0.96) | 1.2 | |
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 1.5 (0.96) | 1.2 | |
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 1.56 (1.02) | 1.1 | |
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 1.68 (1.14) | 0.8 | |
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 1.68 (1.14) | 0.8 | |
7. Dorothy15 | 1.72 (1.18) | 0.7 | |
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 1.86 (1.32) | 0.3 | |
PERSISTENCE | 0 ( ) |