Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Wednesday March 20, 2019
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Columbia-Metro, SC (KCAE)
We hope that you will enjoy the Vernal Equinox on Wednesday and the first day of spring! In Columbia, South Carolina, the two main U.S. models are making different forecasts for Wednesday. The GFS has high temperatures in the mid to upper 60's, but the NAM's forecasts are about 50 F. So let's forecast Tmax for Columbia and see if the temperatures are spring-like or not.
Question: Can you see a reason for the different temperature forecasts? Hint: Go to a website with model forecasts and compare the two model forecasts for Wednesday afternoon. For example, compare these GFS and NAM precipitation forecasts for the same time Wednesday evening.
| Forecaster | Tmax, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 61 | Tmax FINAL. | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 62 (1) | 3.3 | |
| PERSISTENCE | 59 (-2) | 3.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 63 (2) | 3.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 64 (3) | 2.8 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 64 (3) | 2.8 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 66 (5) | 2.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 66 (5) | 2.3 | |
| CLIMATE | 69.4 (8.4) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 1.4 |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 51 (-10) | 1.0 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 51 (-10) | 1.0 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 49 (-12) | 0.5 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 49 (-12) | 0.5 |