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Wednesday March 20, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Columbia-Metro, SC (KCAE)

We hope that you will enjoy the Vernal Equinox on Wednesday and the first day of spring! In Columbia, South Carolina, the two main U.S. models are making different forecasts for Wednesday. The GFS has high temperatures in the mid to upper 60's, but the NAM's forecasts are about 50 F. So let's forecast Tmax for Columbia and see if the temperatures are spring-like or not.

Question: Can you see a reason for the different temperature forecasts? Hint: Go to a website with model forecasts and compare the two model forecasts for Wednesday afternoon. For example, compare these GFS and NAM precipitation forecasts for the same time Wednesday evening.

Forecasts for Columbia-Metro, SC (KCAE)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 62 (1) 3.3
PERSISTENCE 59 (-2) 3.0
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 63 (2) 3.0
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 64 (3) 2.8
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 64 (3) 2.8
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 66 (5) 2.3
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 66 (5) 2.3
CLIMATE 69.4 (8.4) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 1.4
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 51 (-10) 1.0
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 51 (-10) 1.0
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 49 (-12) 0.5
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 49 (-12) 0.5