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Wednesday February 6, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Stillwater, OK (KSWO)

We always show statistical forecasts from the two main U.S. models, the GFS and NAM. Usually their forecasts agree to within a few degrees, so it's unusual to see them disagree by a whopping 30 deg F for Wednesday's high temperature in Stillwater, Oklahoma (home of Oklahoma State University). So let's forecast Tmax for Stillwater and see what happens. There is a sharp cold front or stationary front across the area, and the models differ on the position of the front during the day on Wednesday, seen by looking at the midday temperature plots for the NAM and GFS.

Question: The National Weather Service webpage shows the high and low temperatures chosen by their expert forecasters, and you can check those to see if the NWS seems to be "choosing a side" between the two conflicting models. For Stillwater's Tmax on Wednesday, can you tell whether they agree more with the GFS or NAM model forecasts?

Forecasts for Stillwater, OK (KSWO)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 42 (6) 3.6
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 44 (8) 3.4
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 46 (10) 3.3
CLIMATE 51.9 (15.9) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 2.9
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 57 (21) 2.5
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 68 (32) 1.7
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 75 (39) 1.2
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 76 (40) 1.2
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 76 (40) 1.2
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 77 (41) 1.1
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 78 (42) 1.0
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 78 (42) 1.0