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Wednesday January 9, 2019

Assignment: Predict the snow depth at the end of the day (inches) for Burlington, VT (KBTV)

The precipitation forecast looks complicated for Burlington, Vermont on Wednesday. The NWS is calling for a mix of rain and snow, with temperatures just above freezing. And some of the MOS forecasts have the maximum temperature reaching 40 F! Nevertheless, let's try to forecast the depth of snow on the ground that the NWS will report on Thursday morning. The MOS snow forecasts are only rough approximations of the snow already on the ground (reported as 2 inches on Tuesday morning), plus the new snow expected to fall over the entire day, but they don't take into account melting or other processes. So think about how much of the precipitation that falls will be snow, and make your best prediction.

Question: The minimum temperature forecast is about 20 F above average for Burlington, so how is it possible that they could have a snow event when it is that warm?

Forecasts for Burlington, VT (KBTV)
Forecaster Snow depth, inches (error) Comment Day Score
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 4.2 (0.2) 3.3
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 4.2 (0.2) 3.3
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 4.2 (0.2) 3.3
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 4.8 (0.8) 2.2
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 4.8 (0.8) 2.2
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 3.2 (-0.8) 2.1
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 4.9 (0.9) 2.0
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 4.9 (0.9) 2.0
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 2.9 (-1.1) 1.6
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 2.7 (-1.3) 1.3
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 5.8 (1.8) 0.4
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 2 (-2) 0.1