The models predict that a new low pressure center will form over the Texas Panhandle on Wednesday, a process called cyclogenesis. Cyclogenesis to the east of the Rocky Mountains is very common, a process called "lee cyclogenesis"", because it occurs on the "leeward" side of the mountains, with the atmospheric flow coming from west to east. The GFS MOS forecasts for Wednesday's high temperature in Lawton, Oklahoma (close to the Texas Panhandle) is 62 F; in fact their last five forecasts have been exactly 62. But the NAM MOS predicts enough cloud cover to keep temperatures below 60, so let's forecast Tmax and see what happens.
Question: Low pressure centers are associated with clouds and precipitation, yet there is no precipitation predicted near the low as it forms on Wednesday. Why?
|Tmax, deg F (error)