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Wednesday November 21, 2018

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr precipitation amount (inches) for Oroville, CA (KOVE)

The fires in California have been a huge national story, especially the deadly Camp Fire in Northern California, which devastated the town of Paradise. At the southern edge of that fire on the map, you'll see the town of Oroville. On Wednesday, the fire story will take a turn, with the possibility of widespread heavy rain in the burned areas, which could lead to other devastating problems -- the NWS discussion mentions ash flows and debris flows: "Newly burned areas will likely see ash flow from moderate rain. The major question is whether rain intensity could reach levels sufficient to cause more hazardous debris flows as a cold front moves inland. There is still quite a bit uncertainty, but there is enough potential to issue a Flash Flood Watch for debris flows at the Mendocino Complex, the Carr, Delta, Hirz fires and the Camp Fire. Flooding outside of the burn areas is not expected, except for local ponding on roads with clogged drains." So let's forecast the 24 hr precipitation amount for Oroville, and hope that the amounts are enough to help suppress the remaining fire (the Camp Fire is currently 70% contained) but not enough to cause any flooding disasters!

Question of the Day: What do you think is the difference between an ash flow, a debris flow, and a mudslide?

Forecasts for Oroville, CA (KOVE)
Forecaster Precip24, inches (error) Comment Day Score