Forecast Central

Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

Show All Forecasters Together OR Show Divisions Separately

Thursday April 2, 2020

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Colorado Springs, CO (KCOS)

The two models disagree on Thursday's low temperature for Colorado Springs, Colorado. Let's forecast Tmin and see what happens.

Question: At the very end of the day (Thursday night), look at these two forecasts of surface (10 m above ground) wind speed: GFS and NAM. What do you see that could explain why the GFS predictions of the temperature at that time are colder than the NAM predictions?

What Happened?

Click on the "Latest Obs" link to see the recent hourly observations. In Colorado Springs on Thursday, the morning low temperature was 32 F, and the day started out with southerly winds. But then in the afternoon, the winds shifted to north and the pressure started rising, two signs of the cold frontal passage. In the cold air behind the front, the temperature was able to drop down to 23 F by midnight. So the GFS was more correct than the NAM, because it had an earlier frontal passage and a colder minimum temperature.

Forecasts for Colorado Springs, CO (KCOS)
Forecaster Tmin, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 23 Tmin FINAL.
1. kendra15 23 (0) 3.1
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 23 (0) 3.1
2. Gus15 22 (-1) 3.0
2. Shyann15 24 (1) 3.0
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 24 (1) 3.0
4. Django15 25 (2) 2.9
4. Grace15 25 (2) 2.9
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 25 (2) 2.9
6. EmilyV15 26 (3) 2.8
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 28 (5) 2.5
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 28 (5) 2.5
7. Josh15 28 (5) 2.5
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 28 (5) 2.5
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 28 (5) 2.5
8. Hannah15 17 (-6) 2.4
8. Alex15 29 (6) 2.4
8. Jasper15 29 (6) because its above ground 2.4
11. Keith15 30 (7) 2.3
11. Abbygale15 16 (-7) 2.3
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 32 (9) 2.1
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 32 (9) 2.1
13. Austin15 33 (10) 1.9
13. Joscelyn15 33 (10) 1.9
15. Sara15 34 (11) 1.8
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 34 (11) 1.8
16. Hailey15 10 (-13) 1.6
16. T-Dawg15 36 (13) 1.6
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 36 (13) 1.6
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 37 (14) 1.5
PERSISTENCE 40 (17) 1.1
18. Dorothy15 43 (20) 0.8
19. Anna15 44 (21) 0.7
20. Elizabeth15 45 (22) 0.5
21. Emily15 58 (35) 0
21. Mathison15 58 (35) 0