Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Tuesday March 31, 2020
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr precipitation amount (inches) for Wilmington, NC (KILM)
A fast-moving low pressure system may intensify as it passes through North Carolina on Tuesday, with the possibility of over one inch of rain in some locations. The NWS model statistical forecasts range from 0.9 to 1.68 inches for Wilmington, NC. So let's forecast the 24 hr precipitation amount (2 am EDT Tuesday through 2 am EDT Wednesday) for Wilmington.
What Happened?
The heaviest precip occurred a little later, as the storm system was offshore. But Wilmington still got 0.54 inches pretty quickly.
| Forecaster | Precip24, inches (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 0.54 | Precip24 FINAL. | |
| Reference | |||
| PERSISTENCE | 0 ( ) | ||
| CLIMATE | 0.17 (-0.37) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 2.7 |
| MOS | |||
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 1.86 (1.32) | 0.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 1.68 (1.14) | 0.8 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 1.68 (1.14) | 0.8 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 1.56 (1.02) | 1.1 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 1.5 (0.96) | 1.2 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 1.08 (0.54) | 2.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 0.9 (0.36) | 2.7 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 0.9 (0.36) | 2.7 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 0.36 (-0.18) | 3.2 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 0.72 (0.18) | 3.2 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 0.72 (0.18) | 3.2 | |
| StokesEarlyCollegeHigh-Mr.Price-SpringEarth/Env.Sciences | |||
| 1. Eavenly15 | 0.6 (0.06) | 3.5 | |
| 2. Emily15 | 0.17 (-0.37) | 2.7 | |
| 3. Mathison15 | 1 (0.46) | 2.5 | |
| 4. Gus15 | 1.19 (0.65) | 2.0 | |
| 5. EmilyV15 | 1.4 (0.86) | 1.5 | |
| 6. Josh15 | 1.5 (0.96) | 1.2 | |
| 7. Dorothy15 | 1.72 (1.18) | 0.7 | |