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Saturday March 14, 2020

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Cut Bank, MT (KCTB)

How would you like to be in Cut Bank, Montana (only 30 miles south of the Canadian border) on Saturday? Here's the NWS forecast: "Snow. Widespread blowing snow, mainly before noon. High near 3. Wind chill values as low as -35. Blustery, with a north wind 21 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible."

So let's predict Saturday's Tmax for Cut Bank, and see if they can even get above 0 F!

Question: Saturday's predicted temperatures are about 40 deg below average for Cut Bank. For the southern part of the U.S., it's almost impossible to get temperatures that are that far below average in March. It's obvious that you can get colder temperatures in northern states like Montana, but what is the fundamental reason that you can also get much farther below the average temperature?

Forecasts for Cut Bank, MT (KCTB)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 0 ( )
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 3 ( )
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 12 ( )
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 -1 ( )
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 14 ( )
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 0 ( )
CLIMATE 42 ( ) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 0 ( )
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 -2 ( )