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Thursday September 12, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Fargo, ND (KFAR)

Lots of rain is expected as a surface low moves through the northern Plains on Thursday. The latest GFS run has the low tracking from South Dakota into North Dakota, bringing some warmer air into places like Fargo, North Dakota. But the NAM has the low further east, moving through Minnesota instead, leading to more northerly flow and cooler daytime temperatures in Fargo. So let's forecast Tmax for Fargo and see what happens.

Forecasts for Fargo, ND (KFAR)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
Reference
CLIMATE 72.5 ( ) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010
PERSISTENCE 66 ( )
MOS
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 70 ( )
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 58 ( )
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 63 ( )
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 64 ( )
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 52 ( )
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 67 ( )
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 64 ( )
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 54 ( )
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 63 ( )
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 61 ( )
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 59 ( )
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 65 ( )