Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Wednesday September 4, 2019
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr precipitation amount (inches) for Daytona Beach, FL (KDAB)
With Hurricane Dorian expected to stay offshore but move along the east coast of Florida on Wednesday, the MOS precipitation forecasts have a large range. Let's forecast the 24-hr precipitation amount for Daytona Beach, Florida.
Question: The MOS high temperature forecasts for Daytona Beach are near 85 F. At what time of the day would you expect the high to occur and why?
| Forecaster | Precip24, inches (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 1.32 | Precip24 FINAL. | |
| Reference | |||
| CLIMATE | 0.21 (-1.11) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 3.5 |
| PERSISTENCE | 0.56 (-0.76) | 3.9 | |
| MOS | |||
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 4.86 (3.54) | 0.9 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 4.86 (3.54) | 0.9 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 4.56 (3.24) | 1.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 4.56 (3.24) | 1.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 4.5 (3.18) | 1.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 4.5 (3.18) | 1.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 4.5 (3.18) | 1.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 4.5 (3.18) | 1.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 3.72 (2.4) | 2.1 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 3.36 (2.04) | 2.5 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 3.18 (1.86) | 2.7 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 0.24 (-1.08) | 3.5 | |