Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Thursday April 25, 2019
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Phoenix-Sky Harbor, AZ (KPHX)
The Desert Southwest is heating up. High temperature forecasts for Thursday are very close to 100 F for Phoenix. All of the forecasts so far are 98 or 99. Let's forecast Tmax and see if they get their first 100 F of the year.
| Forecaster | Tmax, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 99 | Tmax FINAL. | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 99 (0) | 2.7 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 98 (-1) | 2.3 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 98 (-1) | 2.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 98 (-1) | 2.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 98 (-1) | 2.3 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 98 (-1) | 2.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 98 (-1) | 2.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 98 (-1) | 2.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 98 (-1) | 2.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 98 (-1) | 2.3 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 98 (-1) | 2.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 98 (-1) | 2.3 | |
| PERSISTENCE | 94 (-5) | 0.9 | |
| CLIMATE | 88.1 (-10.9) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 0 |