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Thursday April 11, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Omaha, NE (KOMA)

With the intense low pressure system passing near Omaha, Nebraska on Thursday, the two main U.S. models differ on whether Omaha will be inside or outside of the sharply-defined warm sector, resulting in a big difference in the maximum temperature forecast. So let's forecast Tmax for Omaha and see what happens.

Forecasts for Omaha, NE (KOMA)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 53 Tmax FINAL.
Reference
CLIMATE 62.2 (9.2) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 1.3
PERSISTENCE 62 (9) 1.4
MOS
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 66 (13) 0.0
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 43 (-10) 1.1
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 62 (9) 1.4
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 44 (-9) 1.4
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 61 (8) 1.7
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 61 (8) 1.7
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 60 (7) 2.1
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 47 (-6) 2.4
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 57 (4) 3.1
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 50 (-3) 3.4
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 56 (3) 3.4
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 56 (3) 3.4