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Wednesday March 27, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Eau Claire, WI (KEAU)

There is a range of high temperature forecasts for Eau Claire, Wisconsin on Wednesday. Let's forecast Tmax and see what happens.

Question: What likely causes the difference in these Tmax forecasts by the two major U.S. models?

Forecasts for Eau Claire, WI (KEAU)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 58 Tmax FINAL.
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 59 (1) 3.9
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 55 (-3) 3.2
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 54 (-4) 2.9
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 54 (-4) 2.9
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 64 (6) 2.2
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 64 (6) 2.2
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 64 (6) 2.2
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 65 (7) 1.8
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 65 (7) 1.8
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 65 (7) 1.8
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 66 (8) 1.5
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 48 (-10) 0.8
PERSISTENCE 47 (-11) 0.4
CLIMATE 46.7 (-11.3) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0.3