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Thursday March 21, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Walla Walla, WA (KALW)

The Walla Walla, Washington (the name means "Place of Many Waters") high temperature forecast on Thursday looks like another case of the two main U.S. models disagreeing. This time it seems that the NAM has much more cloud cover than the GFS Thursday afternoon, resulting in a 15 F difference. So let's forecast Tmax and see which model is better in this case.

Forecasts for Walla Walla, WA (KALW)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 62 Tmax FINAL.
Reference
CLIMATE 57 (-5) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 2.1
PERSISTENCE 66 (4) 2.3
MOS
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 39 (-23) 0
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 45 (-17) 0.3
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 49 (-13) 0.9
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 56 (-6) 2.0
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 58 (-4) 2.3
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 59 (-3) 2.4
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 60 (-2) 2.6
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 60 (-2) 2.6
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 61 (-1) 2.7
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 61 (-1) 2.7
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 62 (0) 2.9
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 62 (0) 2.9