Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Friday March 8, 2019
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Hibbing, MN (KHIB)
In Hibbing, Minnesota ("We're Ore and More"), the minimum temperature forecasts for Friday range from -7 to 5 F. Let's forecast Tmin and see what happens.
Question: What is a likely reason for the range of Tmin forecasts?
| Forecaster | Tmin, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | -4 | Tmin FINAL. | |
| Reference | |||
| PERSISTENCE | -22 (-18) | 0 | |
| CLIMATE | 9.2 (13.2) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 0.6 |
| MOS | |||
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 5 (9) | 1.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 5 (9) | 1.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 5 (9) | 1.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 4 (8) | 1.7 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 4 (8) | 1.7 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 1 (5) | 2.4 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 0 (4) | 2.6 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | -7 (-3) | 2.8 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | -1 (3) | 2.8 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | -2 (2) | 3.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | -2 (2) | 3.0 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | -3 (1) | 3.2 | |