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Friday February 22, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Prescott, AZ (KPRC)

A major winter storm is expected to bring heavy snow to central and northern Arizona starting Thursday and continuing Friday. It looks like Prescott hasn't had any significant snowfall this winter so far, but this storm could make up for that. With fresh snow on the ground, will Friday's high temperature in Prescott be able to get above freezing? Let's forecast Tmax and find out. Check out the hourly forecast graph to see the forecast for two days of snow and cold, about 20 F below average.

Question: Why does the presence of a snow cover sometimes make it difficult for the temperature to rise very much above freezing?

Forecasts for Prescott, AZ (KPRC)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 32 Tmax FINAL (minor problem).
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 32 (0) 2.8
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 33 (1) 2.6
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 33 (1) 2.6
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 34 (2) 2.5
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 34 (2) 2.5
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 34 (2) 2.5
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 34 (2) 2.5
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 34 (2) 2.5
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 37 (5) 2.0
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 38 (6) 1.8
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 39 (7) 1.6
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 40 (8) 1.5
CLIMATE 56 (24) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0