The computer model (MOS) forecasts for Thursday's high temperature in Charlotte, NC vary from 54 to 72 F. So let's forecast Charlotte's Tmax and see what happens.
Question: What is the reason for the big difference in computer model forecasts?
Forecaster | Tmax, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
---|---|---|---|
OBSERVED | 64 | Tmax FINAL (minor problem). | |
Reference | |||
CLIMATE | 56.4 (-7.6) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 2.0 |
MOS | |||
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 49 (-15) | 0 | |
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 53 (-11) | 1.0 | |
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 54 (-10) | 1.3 | |
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 55 (-9) | 1.6 | |
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 72 (8) | 1.9 | |
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 72 (8) | 1.9 | |
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 71 (7) | 2.2 | |
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 70 (6) | 2.5 | |
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 70 (6) | 2.5 | |
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 70 (6) | 2.5 | |
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 60 (-4) | 3.1 | |
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 65 (1) | 4.0 |