Forecast Central

Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

Show All Forecasters Together OR Show Divisions Separately

Thursday February 21, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Charlotte, NC (KCLT)

The computer model (MOS) forecasts for Thursday's high temperature in Charlotte, NC vary from 54 to 72 F. So let's forecast Charlotte's Tmax and see what happens.

Question: What is the reason for the big difference in computer model forecasts?

Forecasts for Charlotte, NC (KCLT)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 64 Tmax FINAL (minor problem).
Reference
CLIMATE 56.4 (-7.6) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 2.0
MOS
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 49 (-15) 0
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 53 (-11) 1.0
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 54 (-10) 1.3
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 55 (-9) 1.6
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 72 (8) 1.9
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 72 (8) 1.9
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 71 (7) 2.2
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 70 (6) 2.5
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 70 (6) 2.5
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 70 (6) 2.5
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 60 (-4) 3.1
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 65 (1) 4.0