Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Thursday February 21, 2019
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Charlotte, NC (KCLT)
The computer model (MOS) forecasts for Thursday's high temperature in Charlotte, NC vary from 54 to 72 F. So let's forecast Charlotte's Tmax and see what happens.
Question: What is the reason for the big difference in computer model forecasts?
| Forecaster | Tmax, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 64 | Tmax FINAL (minor problem). | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 65 (1) | 4.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 60 (-4) | 3.1 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 70 (6) | 2.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 70 (6) | 2.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 70 (6) | 2.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 71 (7) | 2.2 | |
| CLIMATE | 56.4 (-7.6) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 2.0 |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 72 (8) | 1.9 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 72 (8) | 1.9 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 55 (-9) | 1.6 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 54 (-10) | 1.3 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 53 (-11) | 1.0 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 49 (-15) | 0 |