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Thursday February 14, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Hermiston, OR (KHRI)

Thursday's temperature forecast for Hermiston, Oregon (Motto: "Where Life is Sweet") seems a little strange, with a wintry mix expected. The MOS high temperatures are in the 30's, but the National Weather Service forecast was originally 27 F, then bumped up to 31 F. One of the MOS forecasts has the maximum only 2 degrees higher than the minimum, which is not very common. And the NWS hourly graph shows temperatures below freezing during the afternoon but with rain instead of snow (probably freezing rain). Let's see if we can untangle things and predict the Tmax for Hermiston.

Question: What does "diurnal" mean? For Hermiston, what is the average diurnal temperature range for this date?

Forecasts for Hermiston, OR (KHRI)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 33 Data through 0600 UTC
Reference
CLIMATE 47.8 (14.8) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0
PERSISTENCE 33 (0) 2.6
MOS
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 37 (4) 1.6
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 37 (4) 1.6
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 30 (-3) 1.8
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 36 (3) 1.8
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 35 (2) 2.1
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 32 (-1) 2.4
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 34 (1) 2.4
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 32 (-1) 2.4
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 33 (0) 2.6
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 33 (0) 2.6
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 33 (0) 2.6
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 33 (0) 2.6