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Wednesday January 16, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Hobart, OK (KHBR)

The two major computer models that the National Weather Service uses for weather prediction usually have fairly small differences for any given location and time. But occasionally they diverge, and one example is the Wednesday maximum temperature forecast for Hobart, a city in the southwest corner of Oklahoma, close to the Texas border. The GFS MOS Tmax forecast is a toasty 67 F for Wednesday afternoon, but the NAM MOS forecast is about 20 degrees less (that's a big difference). So let's predict Wednesday's Tmax for Hobart and see which model does better. Hobart is named for Garret A. Hobart, President William McKinley's first vice president (Theodore Roosevelt was his second).

Question: Can you speculate as to what weather factor could be significant enough to cause such a large difference in the temperature forecasts?

Forecasts for Hobart, OK (KHBR)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 59 Tmax FINAL (minor problem).
CLIMATE 49.8 (-9.2) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 2.0
PERSISTENCE 51 (-8) 2.5
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 45 (-14) 0.1
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 46 (-13) 0.5
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 47 (-12) 0.9
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 48 (-11) 1.3
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 69 (10) 1.7
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 68 (9) 2.1
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 67 (8) 2.5
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 67 (8) 2.5
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 67 (8) 2.5
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 67 (8) 2.5
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 67 (8) 2.5
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 63 (4) 4.2