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Friday January 11, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Cross City, FL (KCTY)

In Florida, a National Weather Service discussion mentions the possibility of near freezing temperatures for the "Nature Coast." I found out that the Nature Coast refers to the counties along the Gulf Coast from the Panhandle down to north of Tampa Bay. So let's forecast Friday's minimum temperature for a Nature Coast location, Cross City, Florida, and see if it makes it all the way down to 32 F.

Question: In another NWS discussion, it says "Frost is possible Friday morning inland from the coast where winds become sufficiently light." Why is frost more likely with lighter winds? And why would you expect lighter winds further inland?

Forecasts for Cross City, FL (KCTY)
Forecaster Tmin, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 30 Tmin FINAL (minor problem).
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 29 (-1) 2.7
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 31 (1) 2.7
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 31 (1) 2.7
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 29 (-1) 2.7
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 31 (1) 2.7
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 32 (2) 2.2
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 32 (2) 2.2
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 32 (2) 2.2
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 32 (2) 2.2
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 32 (2) 2.2
PERSISTENCE 33 (3) 1.8
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 33 (3) 1.8
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 34 (4) 1.3
CLIMATE 39.8 (9.8) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0