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Thursday January 10, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Berlin, NH (KBML)

Let's stay in the Northeast, but we'll look at temperature instead of snow cover. For Berlin in northern New Hampshire, Thursday's forecast has a chance of snow. But the different NWS models are doing very different things with the high temperature. Both the GFS and NAM MOS have overcast skies and northerly winds during the day, but the GFS pushes the temperature at 1 pm EST to 32 F, while the NAM forecast at the same time is only 22 F. So let's predict Thursday's Tmax for Berlin and see which model does better.

Question: With a significant snow cover in place, what effect would you expect it to have on the high temperature?

Forecasts for Berlin, NH (KBML)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 28 Tmax FINAL.
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 28 (0) 3.5
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 27 (-1) 3.1
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 27 (-1) 3.1
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 30 (2) 2.7
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 30 (2) 2.7
CLIMATE 25.4 (-2.6) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 2.5
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 32 (4) 1.9
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 32 (4) 1.9
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 24 (-4) 1.9
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 35 (7) 0.7
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 35 (7) 0.7
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 35 (7) 0.7
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 35 (7) 0.7