Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Friday April 10, 2020
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Yellowstone, WY (KP60)
I'm a little puzzled by Friday's minimum temperature forecasts for Yellowstone, Wyoming. The GFS runs predict a low of about 25 F, but the NAM predicts about 15 F. The problem is that I don't really see why the NAM is going that low. But I could easily be wrong, so let's forecast Tmin for Yellowstone and see how it comes out.
What Happened?
Well the observed low was 20 F, so the NAM forecasts were a little too cold and the GFS forecasts were a little too warm.
| Forecaster | Tmin, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 20 | Tmin FINAL. | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 21 (1) | 3.9 | |
| 1. Lizzie15 | 18 (-2) | 3.3 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 18 (-2) | 3.3 | |
| 2. Blake15 | 17 (-3) | 2.7 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 17 (-3) | 2.7 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 24 (4) | 2.2 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 25 (5) | 1.6 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 25 (5) | 1.6 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 15 (-5) | 1.6 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 25 (5) | 1.6 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 26 (6) | 1.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 26 (6) | 1.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 26 (6) | 1.0 | |
| PERSISTENCE | 13 (-7) | 0.4 |