I keep an eye on the hottest and coldest daily observations in the U.S., and the national high is usually somewhere in the desert Southwest (like Yuma, AZ), someplace in South Texas, or someplace in Florida. But the current GFS MOS forecasts are showing that Lufkin, Texas (in Deep East Texas, not South Texas) could have the highest temperature on Wednesday. It's also a little strange that the NWS page for Lufkin shows flood warnings all week, which doesn't usually go with high temperatures. Anyway, let's predict Wednesday's Tmax for Lufkin and see what happens.
Question: What is it about the desert Southwest that results in such extreme high temperatures? Please don't say "because it's the desert" -- what is it about the desert that produces those extremes?
Well Lufkin was foggy/misty/overcast until 1 pm. It finally started clearing and the temperature increased, but the slow start meant that they reached only 87 F, lower than any of the model statistical forecasts.
Of course the desert is often cloud-free, leading to the maximum possible amount of solar radiation. But probably the most important thing is that the lack of rainfall means that the soil stays very dry for long periods in the desert. Given an equal amount of solar radiation between a site with a wet climate and lots of vegetation (e.g. Florida) and a dry desert site, the wet site will warm up less, because some of the energy is used to evaporate water from the soil and drive transpiration from the vegetation, rather than increasing the air temperature.
Forecaster | Tmax, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
---|---|---|---|
OBSERVED | 87 | Tmax FINAL (minor problem). | |
Reference | |||
PERSISTENCE | 84 ( ) | ||
CLIMATE | 76.6 (-10.4) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 0 |
MOS | |||
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 94 (7) | 1.0 | |
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 94 (7) | 1.0 | |
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 92 (5) | 1.7 | |
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 92 (5) | 1.7 | |
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 91 (4) | 2.0 | |
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 91 (4) | 2.0 | |
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 91 (4) | 2.0 | |
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 90 (3) | 2.3 | |
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 90 (3) | 2.3 | |
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 89 (2) | 2.7 | |
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 89 (2) | 2.7 | |
StokesEarlyCollegeHigh-Mr.Price-SpringEarth/Env.Sciences | |||
1. Grace15 | 87 (0) | 3.4 | |
1. Joscelyn15 | 87 (0) | 3.4 | |
3. Austin15 | 88 (1) | There isnt enough water in the sand to control the temperature | 3.0 |
3. Anna15 | 88 (1) | 3.0 | |
3. T-Dawg15 | 86 (-1) | 3.0 | |
3. Jasper15 | 86 (-1) | 3.0 | |
3. Leah15 | 88 (1) | 3.0 | |
8. Mathison15 | 89 (2) | 2.7 | |
8. Lizzie15 | 85 (-2) | 2.7 | |
8. Gus15 | 89 (2) | 2.7 | |
8. Dorothy15 | 89 (2) | 2.7 | |
8. Eavenly15 | 85 (-2) | 2.7 | |
13. Gianni15 | 90 (3) | 2.3 | |
13. Elizabeth15 | 84 (-3) | 2.3 | |
15. Hannah15 | 83 (-4) | 2.0 | |
15. Josh15 | 91 (4) | The small amount of water which is also why it gets cold at night which also means the effect of the suns heat will be greater cause there is no water to absorb it. | 2.0 |
17. Alex15 | 92.1 (5.1) | 1.6 | |
18. Abbygale15 | 93 (6) | 1.3 | |
19. Autumn15 | 94 (7) | 1.0 | |
20. EmilyS15 | 95 (8) | 0.7 | |
20. EmilyV15 | 95 (8) | 0.7 | |
22. Shyann15 | 78 (-9) | 0.3 | |
23. Shelby15 | 75 (-12) | 0 |