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Tuesday April 7, 2020

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Las Vegas-McCarran, NV (KLAS)

An upper level low pressure center is expected to move very slowly eastward in the next couple of days, bringing significant rainfall to Southern California and Nevada. Temperature forecasts for Las Vegas, Nevada are about 10-20 F cooler than average. So let's forecast Tmax for Las Vegas.

Question: Why do you think that the GFS forecasts are cooler than the NAM forecasts?

What Happened?

The early runs of the GFS predicted more rainfall, and so also lower temperatures. But later GFS runs shifted to agree with the NAM, with less precip and the chance for warming into the 60's. The obs show that they had a little light rain in the middle of the day, but then partial clearing, and it was able to warm to 65 F.

Forecasts for Las Vegas-McCarran, NV (KLAS)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 65 Tmax FINAL.
Reference
CLIMATE 75.6 (10.6) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0.9
PERSISTENCE 68 (3) 2.5
MOS
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 56 (-9) 1.2
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 56 (-9) 1.2
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 56 (-9) 1.2
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 59 (-6) 1.9
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 60 (-5) 2.1
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 69 (4) 2.3
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 67 (2) 2.7
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 63 (-2) 2.7
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 64 (-1) 3.0
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 66 (1) 3.0
StokesEarlyCollegeHigh-Mr.Price-SpringEarth/Env.Sciences
1. Jasper15 65 (0) 3.2
2. T-Dawg15 66 (1) 3.0
3. Hailey15 70 (5) 2.1
3. Keith15 60 (-5) 2.1
5. Leah15 58 (-7) 1.7
6. Lizzie15 45 (-20) 0
Open
1. kendra15 62 (-3) 2.5