Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Saturday April 4, 2020
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Deadhorse, AK (PASC)
To end the week, let's try a forecast in Alaska. The small town of Deadhorse, Alaska is in the extreme northern part of the state, near the Arctic Ocean. This photo from Wikipedia probably gives a good idea of how it looks at this time of year. The model statistical forecasts for Saturday's high temperature are in the teens, but the NWS forecast is a little over 20 F. Notice that the average high is only about 0 F! So let's forecast Tmax for Deadhorse and see how it comes out.
What Happened?
Although the model high temperature forecasts ranged from 14 to 22 F, the temperature in Deadhorse struggled to reach only 11 F. So the models were all too high this time, even though they do a good job most of the time.
| Forecaster | Tmax, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 11 | Tmax FINAL. | |
| 1. Hannah15 | 11 (0) | 3.4 | |
| 2. Gus15 | 12 (1) | 3.3 | |
| 2. Shyann15 | 12 (1) | 3.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 14 (3) | 2.9 | |
| 4. Elizabeth15 | 14 (3) | 2.9 | |
| 4. Lizzie15 | 14 (3) | 2.9 | |
| 4. Jasper15 | 14 (3) | 2.9 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 14 (3) | 2.9 | |
| PERSISTENCE | 15 (4) | 2.7 | |
| 7. Mikayleigh15 | 15 (4) | 2.7 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 15 (4) | 2.7 | |
| 8. Alex15 | 15.8 (4.8) | 2.5 | |
| 8. Josh15 | 15.8 (4.8) | 2.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 16 (5) | 2.5 | |
| 10. Keith15 | 16 (5) | 2.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 16 (5) | 2.5 | |
| 10. Miles15 | 16 (5) | ~(0-o)~ | 2.5 |
| 10. T-Dawg15 | 16 (5) | 2.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 16 (5) | 2.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 17 (6) | 2.3 | |
| 13. Autumn15 | 17 (6) | 2.3 | |
| 13. Anna15 | 17 (6) | 2.3 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 17 (6) | 2.3 | |
| 15. Sara15 | 3 (-8) | 1.9 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 19 (8) | 1.9 | |
| 15. Dorothy15 | 19 (8) | 1.9 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 19 (8) | 1.9 | |
| 17. EmilyV15 | 20 (9) | 1.7 | |
| 17. EmilyS15 | 20 (9) | 1.7 | |
| 17. Leah15 | 20 (9) | 1.7 | |
| 20. Grace15 | 21 (10) | 1.5 | |
| CLIMATE | 0.5 (-10.5) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 1.4 |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 22 (11) | 1.3 | |
| 21. Austin15 | 23 (12) | 1.1 | |
| 21. Mathison15 | 23 (12) | 1.1 | |
| 21. Joscelyn15 | 23 (12) | 1.1 | |
| 21. kendra15 | 23 (12) | 1.1 | |
| 25. Shelby15 | 24 (13) | 0.9 | |
| 25. ashleigh15 | 24 (13) | 0.9 | |
| 27. Hailey15 | 36 (25) | 0 | |
| 27. Gianni15 | 35 (24) | 0 |