Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Friday April 3, 2020
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Amarillo, TX (KAMA)
As the push of cold air continues to move southward through Texas, you can see the dramatic temperature drops in some locations. For example, it looks like the high temperature Thursday in Amarillo, Texas (once "The Helium Capital of the World") will be near or above 80 F, but then the low temperature for Friday may be in the 30's. So let's predict Friday's Tmin for Amarillo.
Question: This part of the spring is notorious for the frequency of tornadoes and other severe weather in the Southern Plains. Here's a map of the area with the highest probability. Severe weather can really occur in any month, but why does it happen most often in the spring?
What Happened?
The cold front passed through the evening before, and the temperature plunged all the way from 80 F at 6 pm to 25 F in the morning. Here's a nice discussion of the setup for severe weather in April, including a statement that the three worst tornado outbreaks in U.S. history all occurred in April.
| Forecaster | Tmin, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 25 | Tmin FINAL. | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 28 (3) | 2.8 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 29 (4) | 2.7 | |
| PERSISTENCE | 30 (5) | 2.6 | |
| 1. Django15 | 30 (5) | 2.6 | |
| 1. ashleigh15 | 30 (5) | 2.6 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 31 (6) | 2.5 | |
| 3. Gus15 | 31 (6) | 2.5 | |
| 3. kendra15 | 31 (6) | 2.5 | |
| 5. Grace15 | 32 (7) | 2.4 | |
| 5. Sara15 | 32 (7) | 2.4 | |
| 5. Joscelyn15 | 32 (7) | 2.4 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 32 (7) | 2.4 | |
| 5. Austin15 | 32 (7) | 2.4 | |
| 5. Leah15 | 32 (7) | 2.4 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 33 (8) | 2.3 | |
| 10. Keith15 | 33 (8) | 2.3 | |
| 10. Briley15 | 33 (8) | 2.3 | |
| 10. Anna15 | 33 (8) | 2.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 33 (8) | 2.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 33 (8) | 2.3 | |
| 13. EmilyV15 | 34 (9) | 2.2 | |
| 13. Elizabeth15 | 34 (9) | 2.2 | |
| 13. Josh15 | 34 (9) | I think since that is the period that is the switch off between winter and summer so it can go back and forth like a tug a war. | 2.2 |
| 13. Jasper15 | 34 (9) | 2.2 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 34 (9) | 2.2 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 34 (9) | 2.2 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 34 (9) | 2.2 | |
| 17. Shelby15 | 35 (10) | 2.2 | |
| 17. Hannah15 | 35 (10) | 2.2 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 36 (11) | 2.1 | |
| 19. Abbygale15 | 37 (12) | 2.0 | |
| CLIMATE | 37.7 (12.7) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 1.9 |
| 20. Dorothy15 | 39 (14) | 1.8 | |
| 20. Lizzie15 | 39 (14) | 1.8 | |
| 22. Mikayleigh15 | 40 (15) | 1.7 | |
| 22. Shyann15 | 40 (15) | 1.7 | |
| 24. Eavenly15 | 47 (22) | 1.0 | |
| 25. Mathison15 | 55 (30) | 0.3 | |
| 26. EmilyS15 | 75 (50) | 0 | |
| 26. T-Dawg15 | 81 (56) | 0 |