The two models disagree on Thursday's low temperature for Colorado Springs, Colorado. Let's forecast Tmin and see what happens.
Question: At the very end of the day (Thursday night), look at these two forecasts of surface (10 m above ground) wind speed: GFS and NAM. What do you see that could explain why the GFS predictions of the temperature at that time are colder than the NAM predictions?
Click on the "Latest Obs" link to see the recent hourly observations. In Colorado Springs on Thursday, the morning low temperature was 32 F, and the day started out with southerly winds. But then in the afternoon, the winds shifted to north and the pressure started rising, two signs of the cold frontal passage. In the cold air behind the front, the temperature was able to drop down to 23 F by midnight. So the GFS was more correct than the NAM, because it had an earlier frontal passage and a colder minimum temperature.
Forecaster | Tmin, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
---|---|---|---|
OBSERVED | 23 | Tmin FINAL. | |
Reference | |||
PERSISTENCE | 40 (17) | 1.1 | |
MOS | |||
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 37 (14) | 1.5 | |
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 36 (13) | 1.6 | |
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 34 (11) | 1.8 | |
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 32 (9) | 2.1 | |
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 32 (9) | 2.1 | |
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 28 (5) | 2.5 | |
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 28 (5) | 2.5 | |
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 28 (5) | 2.5 | |
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 28 (5) | 2.5 | |
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 25 (2) | 2.9 | |
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 24 (1) | 3.0 | |
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 23 (0) | 3.1 | |
StokesEarlyCollegeHigh-Mr.Price-SpringEarth/Env.Sciences | |||
1. Gus15 | 22 (-1) | 3.0 | |
1. Shyann15 | 24 (1) | 3.0 | |
3. Django15 | 25 (2) | 2.9 | |
3. Grace15 | 25 (2) | 2.9 | |
5. EmilyV15 | 26 (3) | 2.8 | |
6. Josh15 | 28 (5) | 2.5 | |
7. Hannah15 | 17 (-6) | 2.4 | |
7. Alex15 | 29 (6) | 2.4 | |
7. Jasper15 | 29 (6) | because its above ground | 2.4 |
10. Keith15 | 30 (7) | 2.3 | |
10. Abbygale15 | 16 (-7) | 2.3 | |
12. Austin15 | 33 (10) | 1.9 | |
12. Joscelyn15 | 33 (10) | 1.9 | |
14. Sara15 | 34 (11) | 1.8 | |
15. Hailey15 | 10 (-13) | 1.6 | |
15. T-Dawg15 | 36 (13) | 1.6 | |
17. Dorothy15 | 43 (20) | 0.8 | |
18. Anna15 | 44 (21) | 0.7 | |
19. Elizabeth15 | 45 (22) | 0.5 | |
20. Emily15 | 58 (35) | 0 | |
20. Mathison15 | 58 (35) | 0 | |
Open | |||
1. kendra15 | 23 (0) | 3.1 |