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Tuesday March 24, 2020

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Saranac Lake, NY (KSLK)

On Sunday morning the low temperature in Saranac Lake, New York ("The Capital of the Adirondacks") was only 3 F. But the forecasts for Tuesday are much warmer, in the 20's, about 5-10 F above average. So let's predict Tuesday's Tmin and see what happens.

Question: What is expected to be the big difference that will make Tuesday's minimum temperature so much warmer?

What Happened?

Look at the observations to see that on Monday night and Tuesday morning, the temperature only fell to 28 F because the skies stayed cloudy all night, with occasional snow showers. That shows the big difference between clear skies and calm winds (which produced the very cold 3 F night on Sunday morning) and overcast skies. The cloud cover blocks the outgoing longwave radiation emitted by the earth and re-radiates it back to the ground, keeping the temperatures up.

As it turns out, the 24-hr low temperature dropped much more at the very end of the day, because the cloud cover suddenly cleared out, allowing strong radiative cooling for at least a while. So this was a tough forecast challenge!

Forecasts for Saranac Lake, NY (KSLK)
Forecaster Tmin, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 13 Tmin FINAL.
Reference
PERSISTENCE 17 (4) 2.8
CLIMATE 16.2 (3.2) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 3.0
MOS
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 26 (13) 1.3
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 25 (12) 1.4
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 25 (12) 1.4
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 23 (10) 1.8
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 22 (9) 2.0
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 22 (9) 2.0
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 21 (8) 2.1
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 21 (8) 2.1
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 20 (7) 2.3
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 20 (7) 2.3
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 19 (6) 2.5
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 19 (6) 2.5
StokesEarlyCollegeHigh-Mr.Price-SpringEarth/Env.Sciences
1. Alex15 12.5 (-0.5) 3.4
2. Lizzie15 12 (-1) 3.4
2. Anna15 12 (-1) 3.4
4. Joscelyn15 15 (2) 3.2
4. Autumn15 11 (-2) 3.2
6. Dorothy15 10 (-3) 3.0
7. Gus15 16.2 (3.2) 3.0
8. Hannah15 17 (4) 2.8
8. Leah15 17 (4) 2.8
10. EmilyS15 21 (8) 2.1
11. Keith15 22 (9) 2.0
11. EmilyV15 22 (9) 2.0
13. Josh15 23 (10) The difference I think is that The minimum temperature will go up because the snow system will be moving out. 1.8
14. Django15 24 (11) 1.6
15. Elizabeth15 25 (12) 1.4
16. Hailey15 25.6 (12.6) 1.3
17. Grace15 26 (13) Sunny or partly cloudy weather becomes more frequent so maybe there is going to be more of a warm front moving in. 1.3
18. Shyann15 28 (15) 0.9
19. Miles15 30 (17) 0.6
20. Jasper15 39 (26) 0
20. Shelby15 35 (22) 0
Open
1. ashleigh15 28 (15) 0.9