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Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

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Friday March 13, 2020

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Roswell, NM (KROW)

We show automated forecasts from the two main U.S. weather models, the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the North American Mesoscale model (NAM). Usually their forecasts for the next couple of days are fairly similar, but occasionally they diverge quite a bit. For Friday's high temperature in Roswell, New Mexico, the two models are not in agreement. So let's make our own forecast and see which model does better in this case.

Question: What is the likely reason that models differ for this type of day?

Roswell is famous for a past UFO incident, and it still attracts tourists from around the world.

What Happened?

Initially the GFS and NAM models were far apart on Roswell's high (from 57 to 73 F), but then they got closer. Friday turned out to be a cloudy day with some rain, but not enough to hold down the high temperature to 57 F. Instead, it climbed to 67 F, so kind of in the middle of the various forecasts. When models disagree, sometimes forecasters will choose the one they think will do better for the particular situation, but other times they choose a "consensus" (such as a simple average) of a set of different forecasts.

Forecasts for Roswell, NM (KROW)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 67 Tmax FINAL.
1. Jasper15 67 (0) sorry first one messed up 3.3
1. Gus15 67 (0) 3.3
1. Sara15 67 (0) Brings rain 3.3
CLIMATE 67.4 (0.4) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 3.2
4. Anna15 68 (1) 3.1
4. Abbygale15 68 (1) 3.1
4. Mikayleigh15 68 (1) 3.1
4. Hannah15 66 (-1) 3.1
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 69 (2) 2.8
8. Grace15 65 (-2) 2.8
8. Mathison15 69 (2) 2.8
8. Ashleigh15 69 (2) 2.8
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 69 (2) 2.8
11. Taylor15 70 (3) 2.6
11. Shyann15 70 (3) 2.6
11. Miles15 70 (3) ~(0-o)~ 2.6
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 70 (3) 2.6
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 71 (4) 2.3
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 71 (4) 2.3
14. Autumn15 63 (-4) 2.3
14. kendra15 71 (4) 2.3
14. Elizabeth15 71 (4) 2.3
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 71 (4) 2.3
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 71 (4) 2.3
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 72 (5) 2.1
17. EmilyS15 72 (5) 2.1
17. abigail15 72 (5) 2.1
17. Blake15 62 (-5) 2.1
20. Eavenly15 73 (6) 1.9
20. Alex15 73 (6) My best guess, thank u! 1.9
20. Josh15 73 (6) 1.9
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 73 (6) 1.9
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 73 (6) 1.9
PERSISTENCE 74 (7) 1.6
23. Emily15 60 (-7) 1.6
23. Dorothy15 74 (7) 1.6
25. T-Dawg15 75 (8) 1.4
25. EmilyV15 75 (8) 1.4
25. Django15 75 (8) 1.4
25. Gianni15 75 (8) i haven't got a clue 1.4
25. Hailey15 75 (8) 1.4
25. Shelby15 75 (8) 1.4
31. Keith15 76 (9) 1.2
31. Austin15 76 (9) I guess I'm right 1.2
31. Briley15 76 (9) YEET! 1.2
34. Joscelyn15 77 (10) It's going to be rainy 0.9
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 57 (-10) 0.9
35. Karlie15 54 (-13) 0.2
36. Lizzie15 45 (-22) 0
36. Leah15 50 (-17) heavy thunderstorms 0