Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Thursday March 12, 2020
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Alturus, CA (KAAT)
We can call the difference between the day's low and high temperatures the "diurnal range". Some types of locations often have very large diurnal ranges. An example of one such site is Alturas, California, located in the far northeast corner of the state. Let's forecast Thursday's minimum temperature for Alturas and see how low it gets.Question: Why do you think that Alturas is predicted to have such a big spread between the Tmin and Tmax (diurnal range) on Thursday?
What Happened?
Alturas is in the extreme northeast corner of California, close to the Nevada border. It's on the east (dry) side of the Sierra Nevada mountains, and the elevation is high (over 4000 feet), so it's climate is very dry. Dry, high altitude locations tend to have a big temperature range on days with clear skies and light winds. Thursday was a day like that, and so strong radiative cooling at night allowed the temperature to drop all the way to 18 F.
| Forecaster | Tmin, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 18 | Tmin FINAL. | |
| Reference | |||
| CLIMATE | 24.6 (6.6) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 2.2 |
| PERSISTENCE | 17 (-1) | 2.6 | |
| MOS | |||
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 26 (8) | 2.1 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 25 (7) | 2.1 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 25 (7) | 2.1 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 25 (7) | 2.1 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 24 (6) | 2.2 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 23 (5) | 2.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 23 (5) | 2.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 22 (4) | 2.4 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 17 (-1) | 2.6 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 18 (0) | 2.7 | |
| StokesEarlyCollegeHigh-Mr.Price-SpringEarth/Env.Sciences | |||
| 1. Django15 | 18 (0) | 2.7 | |
| 1. Briley15 | 18 (0) | I’m going to laugh if I get this right lol. | 2.7 |
| 3. Gus15 | 19 (1) | 2.6 | |
| 3. Sara15 | 19 (1) | 2.6 | |
| 3. Mikayleigh15 | 17 (-1) | 2.6 | |
| 3. Dorothy15 | 19 (1) | 2.6 | |
| 7. Shelby15 | 20 (2) | 2.5 | |
| 7. Hannah15 | 16 (-2) | 2.5 | |
| 7. Ashleigh15 | 16 (-2) | 2.5 | |
| 10. Autumn15 | 15 (-3) | 2.5 | |
| 10. Leah15 | 15 (-3) | there is going to be some snow later in the week | 2.5 |
| 10. Mathison15 | 21 (3) | 2.5 | |
| 13. Anna15 | 22 (4) | 2.4 | |
| 13. Elizabeth15 | 22 (4) | 2.4 | |
| 15. Karlie15 | 24 (6) | 2.2 | |
| 15. Blake15 | 24 (6) | 2.2 | |
| 17. Miles15 | 25 (7) | 2.1 | |
| 18. Hailey15 | 4 (-14) | 1.6 | |
| 19. Shyann15 | 0 (-18) | 1.3 | |
| 20. Grace15 | 45 (27) | 0.6 | |
| 21. Abbygale15 | 47 (29) | 0.5 | |
| 22. Kerrigan15 | 60 (42) | 0 | |
| 22. Gianni15 | 75 (57) | 0 | |
| 22. Emily15 | 61 (43) | 0 | |
| Open | |||
| 1. kendra15 | 19 (1) | 2.6 | |
| 2. abigail15 | 22 (4) | 2.4 | |