Forecast Central

Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

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Wednesday September 25, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Chicago-Midway, IL (KMDW)

The forecast contest for Wed will be to forecast the max temp for Chicago (KMDW). The main challenge for the forecaster will be the timing and strength of a cold front that will move through the area during the WEd timeframe Go to Link to see NWS’s expected frontal position for 8 AM EDT on Wed.

Forecasts for Chicago-Midway, IL (KMDW)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 80 Tmax FINAL (minor problem).
PERSISTENCE 80 (0) 4.1
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 79 (-1) 3.7
1. ianm14 78 (-2) 3.3
2. natep14 77 (-3) 2.8
2. lucasm14 77 (-3) 2.8
2. calebb14 77 (-3) 2.8
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 77 (-3) 2.8
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 76 (-4) 2.4
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 76 (-4) 2.4
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 75 (-5) 2.0
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 75 (-5) 2.0
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 74 (-6) 1.6
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 74 (-6) 1.6
5. glennvk 74 (-6) 1.6
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 74 (-6) 1.6
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 74 (-6) 1.6
6. sandivk 73 (-7) 1.2
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 73 (-7) 1.2
7. cherylb14 72 (-8) 0.8
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 72 (-8) 0.8
CLIMATE 71.6 (-8.4) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0.6
8. charlotteb14 71 (-9) 0.3