Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Wednesday September 18, 2019
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Grand Junction , CO (KGJT)
The forecast contest for Wed will be to again forecast the max temp for Grand Junction CO (KGJT). The main challenge for the forecaster will be the the amount of sunshine the region will get. Go to Link to see NWS’s expected weather map for 8 AM EDT on Wed. The models are indicating generally fair weather and abundant sunshine following the trough passage as drier southwest flow move in to the region lat Tue night and Wed.. But keep in mind any afternoon clouds that due form could reduce the max temp.
| Forecaster | Tmax, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 84 | Tmax FINAL. | |
| Reference | |||
| CLIMATE | 79.2 (-4.8) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 0.3 |
| PERSISTENCE | 84 (0) | 3.7 | |
| MOS | |||
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 79 (-5) | 0.1 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 80 (-4) | 0.8 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 80 (-4) | 0.8 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 81 (-3) | 1.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 82 (-2) | 2.2 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 82 (-2) | 2.2 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 82 (-2) | 2.2 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 83 (-1) | 3.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 83 (-1) | 3.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 83 (-1) | 3.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 83 (-1) | 3.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 83 (-1) | 3.0 | |
| HomeschoolScience-GlennVanKnowe-PhysicalScience | |||
| 1. natep14 | 85 (1) | I think it will be warmer than normal for this time of year. | 3.0 |
| 2. cherylb14 | 82 (-2) | 2.2 | |
| 3. calebb14 | 81 (-3) | 1.5 | |
| 4. charlotteb14 | 80 (-4) | 0.8 | |
| Teacher | |||
| 1. glennvk | 82 (-2) | I think mostly sunny conditions during the day will lead to temperature 2-3 degrees above normal. This is consistent with most model forecasts. | 2.2 |
| 2. sandivk | 81 (-3) | sunny | 1.5 |