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Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

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Wednesday September 18, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Grand Junction , CO (KGJT)

The forecast contest for Wed will be to again forecast the max temp for Grand Junction CO (KGJT). The main challenge for the forecaster will be the the amount of sunshine the region will get. Go to Link to see NWS’s expected weather map for 8 AM EDT on Wed. The models are indicating generally fair weather and abundant sunshine following the trough passage as drier southwest flow move in to the region lat Tue night and Wed.. But keep in mind any afternoon clouds that due form could reduce the max temp.

Forecasts for Grand Junction , CO (KGJT)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 84 Tmax FINAL.
PERSISTENCE 84 (0) 3.7
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 83 (-1) 3.0
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 83 (-1) 3.0
1. natep14 85 (1) I think it will be warmer than normal for this time of year. 3.0
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 83 (-1) 3.0
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 83 (-1) 3.0
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 83 (-1) 3.0
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 82 (-2) 2.2
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 82 (-2) 2.2
2. cherylb14 82 (-2) 2.2
2. glennvk 82 (-2) I think mostly sunny conditions during the day will lead to temperature 2-3 degrees above normal. This is consistent with most model forecasts. 2.2
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 82 (-2) 2.2
4. calebb14 81 (-3) 1.5
4. sandivk 81 (-3) sunny 1.5
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 81 (-3) 1.5
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 80 (-4) 0.8
6. charlotteb14 80 (-4) 0.8
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 80 (-4) 0.8
CLIMATE 79.2 (-4.8) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0.3
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 79 (-5) 0.1