The forecast contest for Tues will be to forecast the precip for Grand Junction CO (KGJT). The main challenge for the forecaster will be the timing and strength of a trough of low pressure that will move through the area. Go to Link to see NWS’s expected weather map for 8 AM EDT on Tuesday. The models are indicating generally light precipitation, e[especially in the afternoon. But the nature of this precip will be showery which models have a hard time to resolve. This gives the forecast a challenge when forecasting for the exact amount of precipitation for one location.
Forecaster | Precip24, inches (error) | Comment | Day Score |
---|---|---|---|
OBSERVED | 0.01 | Data through 0600 UTC | |
PERSISTENCE | 0 (-0.01) | 2.6 | |
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 0 (-0.01) | 2.6 | |
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 0 (-0.01) | 2.6 | |
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 0 (-0.01) | 2.6 | |
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 0 (-0.01) | 2.6 | |
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 0 (-0.01) | 2.6 | |
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 0 (-0.01) | 2.6 | |
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 0 (-0.01) | 2.6 | |
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 0 (-0.01) | 2.6 | |
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 0 (-0.01) | 2.6 | |
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 0 (-0.01) | 2.6 | |
1. glennvk | 0.1 (0.09) | Using Sat imagery, it looks like the trough will be fairly strong and pass through the region mid afternoon allowing for max heating and I believe a good chance for showers at KGJT. But it is a high uncertainty forecasts. | 0.7 |
CLIMATE | 0.11 (0.1) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 0.4 |
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 0.12 (0.11) | 0.2 | |
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 0.12 (0.11) | 0.2 |