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Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

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Tuesday September 17, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr precipitation amount (inches) for Grand Junction , CO (KGJT)

The forecast contest for Tues will be to forecast the precip for Grand Junction CO (KGJT). The main challenge for the forecaster will be the timing and strength of a trough of low pressure that will move through the area. Go to Link to see NWS’s expected weather map for 8 AM EDT on Tuesday. The models are indicating generally light precipitation, e[especially in the afternoon. But the nature of this precip will be showery which models have a hard time to resolve. This gives the forecast a challenge when forecasting for the exact amount of precipitation for one location.

Forecasts for Grand Junction , CO (KGJT)
Forecaster Precip24, inches (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 0.01 Data through 0600 UTC
PERSISTENCE 0 (-0.01) 2.6
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 0 (-0.01) 2.6
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 0 (-0.01) 2.6
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 0 (-0.01) 2.6
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 0 (-0.01) 2.6
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 0 (-0.01) 2.6
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 0 (-0.01) 2.6
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 0 (-0.01) 2.6
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 0 (-0.01) 2.6
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 0 (-0.01) 2.6
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 0 (-0.01) 2.6
1. glennvk 0.1 (0.09) Using Sat imagery, it looks like the trough will be fairly strong and pass through the region mid afternoon allowing for max heating and I believe a good chance for showers at KGJT. But it is a high uncertainty forecasts. 0.7
CLIMATE 0.11 (0.1) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0.4
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 0.12 (0.11) 0.2
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 0.12 (0.11) 0.2