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Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

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Saturday September 14, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Syracuse, NY (KSYR)

The forecast contest for Friday will be to forecast the max temperature for Syracuse NY. The main challenge for the forecaster will be very similar to Friday challenge in Columbus Ohio, which is the timing of the passage of first a warm front and then the cold front that is expected to occur On Saturday. Go to Link to see NWS’s expected frontal position for 8 AM EDT on Saturday. Again, if the warm front passes early the temperature will be very warm well above average. On the other hand if the warm front moves slowly there will be lots of clouds and a cooler air mass in the Syracuse area tomorrow. If the warm front moves slowly the max temperature would be much lower than for an early warm frontal passage. If the warm front moves slow enough it is even possible that it never makes it through the Syracuse area before the cold front sweeps through the area.

What Happened?

As the models predicted, the warm front stayed south of the forecast region allowing for mostly cloudy and showery conditions for much of the day keeping the high temperature in the mid 70s as predicted by the model forecasts.

Forecasts for Syracuse, NY (KSYR)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 75 (-1) 4.2
PERSISTENCE 74 (-2) 3.1
1. glennvk 74 (-2) I think the warm front stays to the south of SYR with lots of clouds and showers in the area keeping max temp in the low 70s as models are predicting 3.1
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 74 (-2) 3.1
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 73 (-3) 2.1
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 73 (-3) 2.1
CLIMATE 73 (-3) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 2.1
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 73 (-3) 2.1
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 72 (-4) 1.0
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 72 (-4) 1.0
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 72 (-4) 1.0
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 72 (-4) 1.0
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 72 (-4) 1.0
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 72 (-4) 1.0