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Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

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Friday September 13, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Columbus-John Glenn, OH (KCMH)

The forecast contest for Friday will be to forecast the max temperature for Columbus Ohio. The main challenge for the forecaster will be the timing of the passage of first a warm front and then the cold front that is expected to occur tomorrow. Go to Link to see NWS’s expected frontal position for 8 AM EDT on Friday. If the warm front passes early the temperature will be very warm well above average. On the other hand if the warm front moves slowly there will be lots of clouds and a cooler air mass in the Columbus area tomorrow. If the warm front moves slowly the max temperature would be much lower than for an early warm frontal passage. If the warm front moves slow enough it is even possible that it never makes it through the Columbus area before the cold front sweeps through the area.

What Happened?

The warm front passed early allowing for more sunshine and a warmer airmass than forecasted by the models allowing temperatures to be 5-10 degrees above the model guidance of mid 80s.

Forecasts for Columbus-John Glenn, OH (KCMH)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
PERSISTENCE 93 (0) 3.8
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 92 (-1) 3.5
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 89 (-4) 2.6
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 89 (-4) 2.6
1. glennvk 89 (-4) I think the warm front passes early allowing temperature to go 3 - 5 degrees above the model guidance of mid 80s. 2.6
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 88 (-5) 2.3
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 87 (-6) 2.0
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 87 (-6) 2.0
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 86 (-7) 1.7
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 86 (-7) 1.7
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 86 (-7) 1.7
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 85 (-8) 1.5
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 84 (-9) 1.2
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 84 (-9) 1.2
CLIMATE 78.2 (-14.8) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0