Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Saturday September 7, 2019
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Spokane-International, WA (KGEG)
Statistical forecasts from the two major U.S. models (GFS and NAM) differ by about 10 F for Saturday's high temperature in Spokane, Washington. So let's predict Tmax for Spokane and see what happens.
| Forecaster | Tmax, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 80 | Tmax FINAL. | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 80 (0) | 3.8 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 79 (-1) | 3.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 82 (2) | 2.8 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 82 (2) | 2.8 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 83 (3) | 2.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 83 (3) | 2.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 83 (3) | 2.3 | |
| CLIMATE | 76.3 (-3.7) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 1.9 |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 84 (4) | 1.8 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 84 (4) | 1.8 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 84 (4) | 1.8 | |
| PERSISTENCE | 74 (-6) | 0.8 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 74 (-6) | 0.8 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 72 (-8) | 0 |