Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Friday April 19, 2019
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Lancaster, OH (KLHQ)
The two major U.S. models agree that temperatures in central Ohio may reach 80 F on Thursday, but they disagree for Friday. They both have a surface low and strong front passing through the area, but at different times. The NAM has an early frontal passage with highs only in the 50's or 60's, but the GFS waits much longer, with highs in the 70's. Also the precipitation forecast varies from 0.3 to over 3 inches. Let's predict Tmax for Lancaster, Ohio (nickname: "Glass City", southeast of Columbus).
| Forecaster | Tmax, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 70 | Tmax FINAL (minor problem). | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 70 (0) | 3.9 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 67 (-3) | 2.9 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 67 (-3) | 2.9 | |
| CLIMATE | 66.5 (-3.5) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 2.7 |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 66 (-4) | 2.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 74 (4) | 2.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 75 (5) | 2.2 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 64 (-6) | 1.9 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 63 (-7) | 1.5 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 63 (-7) | 1.5 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 63 (-7) | 1.5 | |
| PERSISTENCE | 78 (8) | 1.2 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 62 (-8) | 1.2 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 57 (-13) | 0 |