Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Thursday April 11, 2019
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Omaha, NE (KOMA)
With the intense low pressure system passing near Omaha, Nebraska on Thursday, the two main U.S. models differ on whether Omaha will be inside or outside of the sharply-defined warm sector, resulting in a big difference in the maximum temperature forecast. So let's forecast Tmax for Omaha and see what happens.
| Forecaster | Tmax, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 53 | Tmax FINAL. | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 56 (3) | 3.4 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 56 (3) | 3.4 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 50 (-3) | 3.4 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 57 (4) | 3.1 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 47 (-6) | 2.4 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 60 (7) | 2.1 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 61 (8) | 1.7 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 61 (8) | 1.7 | |
| PERSISTENCE | 62 (9) | 1.4 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 44 (-9) | 1.4 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 62 (9) | 1.4 | |
| CLIMATE | 62.2 (9.2) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 1.3 |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 43 (-10) | 1.1 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 66 (13) | 0.0 |