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Wednesday April 10, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr precipitation amount (inches) for Laramie, WY (KLAR)

When I lived in Laramie, Wyoming, I learned that April doesn't mean that spring has really arrived. Wednesday looks like a day like that, with the possibility of a significant snowfall as a powerful low pressure system forms in the lee of the Rockies. Let's predict the 24-hr accumulated precipitation amount (the liquid equivalent, not the depth of snow).

Forecasts for Laramie, WY (KLAR)
Forecaster Precip24, inches (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 0.11 Precip24 FINAL.
CLIMATE 0.06 (-0.05) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 3.1
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 0.18 (0.07) 3.1
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 0.18 (0.07) 3.1
PERSISTENCE 0 (-0.11) 3.0
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 0.3 (0.19) 2.9
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 0.6 (0.49) 2.5
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 0.72 (0.61) 2.4
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 0.96 (0.85) 2.0
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 1.08 (0.97) 1.9
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 1.5 (1.39) 1.3
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 1.68 (1.57) 1.1
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 1.86 (1.75) 0.9
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 2.04 (1.93) 0.6
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 2.46 (2.35) 0.1