Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Thursday April 4, 2019
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr precipitation amount (inches) for Natchez, MS (KHEZ)
Thursday brings the chance of heavy precipitation and thunderstorms in the lower Mississippi Valley. Let's predict the precipitation amount for Natchez, Mississippi and see what happens.
Question: The National Weather Service discussion says "By Thursday morning, considerable elevated convection is expected to begin spreading across the area . .". What is "elevated convection"?
| Forecaster | Precip24, inches (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 0.18 | Precip24 FINAL. | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 0.24 (0.06) | 3.6 | |
| PERSISTENCE | 0 (-0.18) | 3.5 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 0.78 (0.6) | 3.2 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 1.62 (1.44) | 2.5 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 2.04 (1.86) | 2.2 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 2.04 (1.86) | 2.2 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 2.22 (2.04) | 2.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 2.4 (2.22) | 1.9 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 2.94 (2.76) | 1.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 3.36 (3.18) | 1.1 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 3.54 (3.36) | 1.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 3.54 (3.36) | 1.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 4.44 (4.26) | 0.3 |