Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Friday March 29, 2019
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Denver-International, CO (KDEN)
With uncertainty about the position of a weak low pressure system passing through on Friday, the high temperature forecast for Denver, Colorado is not very well-defined. Let's forecast Tmax for Denver and see what happens.
| Forecaster | Tmax, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 42 | Tmax COMPLETE. | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 46 (4) | 3.3 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 46 (4) | 3.3 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 47 (5) | 3.1 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 48 (6) | 2.9 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 49 (7) | 2.7 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 50 (8) | 2.5 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 52 (10) | 2.1 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 53 (11) | 1.9 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 53 (11) | 1.9 | |
| CLIMATE | 56.6 (14.6) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 1.2 |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 57 (15) | 1.1 | |
| PERSISTENCE | 60 (18) | 0.6 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 60 (18) | 0.6 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 60 (18) | 0.6 |