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Thursday March 14, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Elkins, WV (KEKN)

Some of the forecasts below (GFS MOS) are predicting high temperatures of 80 F on Thursday for several sites in West Virginia, and I'm wondering if it can really get that warm. Particularly for a place like Elkins, West Virginia, where the average high is only 50 F. Let's forecast Tmax for Elkins and see how high it goes.

On its Wikipedia page, here's a note about Elkins: "In 1995, a second edition of The 100 Best Small Towns in America, written by Norman Crampton, featured Elkins among the special places in the United States. Crampton quoted then Editor Emerita of The Inter-Mountain, Eldora Marie Bolyard Nuzum, 'You can stand on any street in Elkins and turn in all directions and see forest covered mountains rimming the city. It is unbelievable.'"

Question: What characteristic of Elkins may make it less likely than other West Virginia cities to reach such a high temperature? (Hint: go to the NWS page and look at the information under the map on the right side of the page.)

Forecasts for Elkins, WV (KEKN)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 77 (0) 2.7
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 78 (1) 2.6
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 79 (2) 2.5
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 80 (3) 2.4
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 80 (3) 2.4
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 74 (-3) 2.4
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 74 (-3) 2.4
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 74 (-3) 2.4
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 81 (4) 2.3
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 73 (-4) 2.3
PERSISTENCE 52 (-25) 0
CLIMATE 50.9 (-26.1) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0