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Wednesday March 13, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr precipitation amount (inches) for Denver-International, CO (KDEN)

A big winter storm is predicted for Denver and into the Great Plains on Wednesday. The Denver forecast office has an estimated snow map (click on "Winter Weather Impacts Overview in the upper right corner"), which shows the complex pattern of expected snowfall. Let's predict the 24-hr accumulated precipitation amount (liquid equivalent) for Denver and see what happens.

Question: Why does Denver (unlike most parts of the country) average more snowfall in March than in December, January or February?

Forecasts for Denver-International, CO (KDEN)
Forecaster Precip24, inches (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 0.64 Precip24 Final.
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 0.6 (-0.04) 3.2
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 0.72 (0.08) 3.0
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 0.78 (0.14) 2.7
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 0.78 (0.14) 2.7
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 0.78 (0.14) 2.7
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 0.84 (0.2) 2.4
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 0.84 (0.2) 2.4
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 0.84 (0.2) 2.4
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 1.14 (0.5) 1.0
CLIMATE 0.08 (-0.56) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0.7
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 1.26 (0.62) 0.4
PERSISTENCE 0.01 (-0.63) 0.4